The impact of geopolitics on real estate returns

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Geopolitical tensions topped the list of near-term downside risks for businesses in the latest global risk survey by economic forecasting firm Oxford Economics. It is also a risk of particular relevance for the private real estate industry, given how geopolitical conflict stands to have a detrimental effect on property returns on both a macro and micro level.

In this episode of Spotlight, editor Evelyn Lee speaks with Abby Rosenbaum, associate director at Oxford Economics, about how geopolitical uncertainty overall contributes to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment, which is considered to be the most damaging risk scenario on real estate performance. At the same time, specific geopolitical conflicts – namely, the escalating war in the Middle East and the looming threat of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait – also have a direct negative impact on real estate returns, but that impact varies by market and sector in not-so-obvious ways.

For more, also be sure to check out our February cover story “Private real estate’s collision course with geopolitics.”